Jefferies Sticks With Buy on Microsoft After Survey

Jefferies survey sees $11 billion AI revenue opportunity by 2026

Summary
  • Jefferies models $5.1 billion in Copilot revenue for 2025 and $11.4 billion for 2026.
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A fresh Jefferies survey of 40 enterprises finds M365 Copilot usage jumped to 82%, up from 77% last fall, and forecasts Copilot could drive roughly $11 billion in revenue for Microsoft (MSFT, Financial) by 2026.

Respondents told Jefferies they plan to boost their Microsoft spending by about 4% over the next two years. That confidence helped Jefferies reaffirm its buy rating on MSFT and set a $600 target, calling the company a top AI winner. Brent Thill's team points out that at 31-one times 2026 EPS, Microsoft still looks attractively valued given Copilot's growth runway.

As businesses weave AI deeper into their workflows, Copilot's revenue potential could become a major pillar of Microsoft's cloud story. Even with conservative assumptions, Jefferies pegs Copilot at just over $5 billion in 2025 and $11 billion in 2026.

A separate Morgan Stanley (MS, Financial) CIO survey shows tech leaders planning year‑over‑year spending increases of more than 6% on Microsoft tools. If those plans hold, Copilot's boom may prove to be the next big chapter in enterprise AI.

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