Citi has adjusted its price target for ASML (ASML, Financial), reducing it from EUR 860 to EUR 825. Despite this change, the financial institution continues to uphold a Buy rating on the stock. This adjustment comes amid ongoing evaluations and assessments of the company's market position and future prospects.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) is $878.98 with a high estimate of $1,046.28 and a low estimate of $714.62. The average target implies an upside of 17.56% from the current price of $747.70. More detailed estimate data can be found on the ASML Holding NV (ASML) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 16 brokerage firms, ASML Holding NV's (ASML, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.1, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) in one year is $1104.19, suggesting a upside of 47.68% from the current price of $747.7. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the ASML Holding NV (ASML) Summary page.
ASML Key Business Developments
Release Date: July 16, 2025
- Total Net Sales: EUR7.7 billion, at the upper end of guidance.
- Net System Sales: EUR5.6 billion, with EUR2.7 billion from EUV sales and EUR2.9 billion from non-EUV sales.
- Installed Base Management Sales: EUR2.1 billion, above guidance.
- Gross Margin: 53.7%, above guidance.
- R&D Expenses: EUR1.2 billion.
- SG&A Expenses: EUR299 million.
- Net Income: EUR2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales.
- Earnings Per Share: EUR5.90.
- Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-term Investments: EUR7.2 billion.
- Net System Bookings: EUR5.5 billion, with EUR2.3 billion from EUV and EUR3.2 billion from non-EUV.
- Backlog: Approximately EUR33 billion.
- Final Dividend Paid: EUR1.84 per ordinary share.
- First Quarterly Interim Dividend for 2025: EUR1.60 per ordinary share.
- Share Buyback: EUR1.4 billion in Q2 2025, totaling EUR5.8 billion for the 2022-2025 program.
- Full Year 2025 Revenue Growth Guidance: Around 15% increase with a gross margin of around 52%.
- Q3 2025 Revenue Guidance: EUR7.4 billion to EUR7.9 billion.
- Q3 2025 Gross Margin Guidance: 50% to 52%.
- Q3 2025 R&D Expenses Guidance: Around EUR1.2 billion.
- Q3 2025 SG&A Expenses Guidance: Around EUR310 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) reported total net sales of EUR7.7 billion for Q2 2025, reaching the upper end of their guidance.
- The company's gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 53.7%, driven by increased upgrade business and lower-than-expected tariff impacts.
- Net income for Q2 was EUR2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales, with earnings per share of EUR5.90.
- ASML Holding NV (ASML) expects a 30% increase in EUV capacity in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by higher productivity of the NXE:3800E systems.
- The company anticipates a 15% revenue increase for the full year 2025, with a gross margin of around 52%.
Negative Points
- ASML Holding NV (ASML) faces increasing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, impacting customer capital expenditure timing.
- The gross margin in the second half of 2025 is expected to be lower than the first half, primarily due to the margin dilutive effect of High NA systems.
- There is a EUR1.4 billion adjustment in the backlog related to customer responses to export restrictions, affecting Deep UV and application business.
- The company has not confirmed growth for 2026 due to ongoing uncertainties, despite preparing for potential growth.
- ASML Holding NV (ASML) is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with China accounting for over 25% of total revenue, raising concerns about potential pull-forwards.
