Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, Financial) reports Q2 earnings after the close on Wednesday, July 23. Street consensus expects EPS of $0.33 on $3.1 billion in revenue, reflecting modest top-line growth, primarily driven by new restaurant openings, as the brand contends with tougher comps and inflation-weary consumers.
Investors will focus on Chipotle's ability to sustain traffic and pricing momentum in a consumer environment still facing headwinds. Key questions include whether same-store sales can turn positive and how the new CEO, Scott Boatwright, plans to refresh traffic. Investors will also want to see whether menu innovation, loyalty perks, and digital orders helped revive traffic.
Margins will also be closely watched after Q1 restaurant-level margin contracted to 26.2% due to food and labor pressures. Analysts will look for efficiency gains from digital orders and automation, including pilot initiatives like the ‘Autocado' and the augmented makeline system.
Unit growth remains a central driver for the bull thesis. Chipotle plans to open between 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurants in 2025, most with Chipotlanes. Execution on new units remains a key growth lever. Any updates on permitting, development costs, or productivity metrics could reshape investor sentiment coming out of the call.
