Freeport-McMoRan Q2 Preview: Tariff Test

Copper rally tests margins ahead of a 50% import duty

Summary
  • Street sees Q2 EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $7.2 billion, up 8% YoY, but copper-price swings and tariff uncertainty could weigh on the report.
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Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, Financial) will report Q2 results on Wednesday, July 23, before market open. Street consensus call for EPS of $0.45 on revenue of $7.2 billion, up 8% YoY. Shares are up 19% year-to-date.

Investors will watch realized copper and gold prices after spot copper hit $5.66 per pound on July 21, reaching all time highs and up 40% so far this year. The bigger swing factor is President Trump's 50% copper-import tariff set for August 1, which could reshape net-cash-cost guidance. Updates on Grasberg underground ramp-up and Cerro Verde throughput will steer volume expectations.

Watch for commentary on balance-sheet flexibility. The board has declared a $0.075 base plus $0.075 variable dividend payable August 1, and CFO Kathleen Quirk has signaled variable returns will track free-cash-flow trends. A reaffirmation, or tweak, of the 2025 capex plan and cost curve under the new tariff regime could be the next catalyst.

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