After sliding for three straight days, European natural gas prices are catching their breath. Dutch front-month futures—the region's benchmark—hovered at €33.28 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday morning, steadying after touching a three-week low. So far, Europe's summer stockpiling has gone reasonably well. But the game isn't over. As global competition for LNG intensifies, traders are starting to question whether that momentum can hold.
Two signals are flashing. First, Egypt has begun importing more fuel after activating two new floating LNG terminals. Second, Japan is facing hotter-than-usual weather, a setup that could supercharge its power demand—and its LNG needs. Throw in heat warnings across southern Europe and a few supply hiccups in Norway, and it's a recipe that could start drawing cargoes away from EU ports just as the region builds for winter.
The one steadying hand? U.S. output. The world's top LNG exporter is still pumping hard, helping ease pressure—for now. But investors shouldn't get too comfortable. With multiple demand hotspots forming outside Europe, and weather continuing to play wild card, the path forward could be anything but smooth. A sharp rebound in prices isn't off the table if any of these pressure points tighten further.
