Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR, Financial) fell by $2.38, closing near $423.90, amidst varied sentiment in the options market. The trading volume for options was relatively low at 246,000 contracts, with a higher inclination towards calls over puts, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.73. This is slightly above the typical level of 0.6.
The implied volatility (IV30) saw a minor decrease of 0.35, settling at 49.14, placing it in the lowest 10% of its observations over the past year. This indicates an anticipated daily movement of $13.12. Additionally, the put-call skew increased, reflecting a growing demand for downside protection.
Looking forward, MicroStrategy (MSTR, Financial) is scheduled to release its earnings report after the market closes on July 31, 2025. The options market currently predicts a 50% chance of the stock moving more than 3.58%, equating to $15.19.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Strategy (MSTR, Financial) is $488.85 with a high estimate of $680.00 and a low estimate of $200.00. The average target implies an upside of 15.16% from the current price of $424.50. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Strategy (MSTR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 13 brokerage firms, Strategy's (MSTR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.1, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Strategy (MSTR, Financial) in one year is $24.23, suggesting a downside of 94.29% from the current price of $424.5. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Strategy (MSTR) Summary page.
MSTR Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 01, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Strategy (MSTR, Financial) remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, with 553,555 Bitcoins valued at $52 billion.
- The company raised $6.6 billion through an ATM equity offering and $2 billion through convertible notes in Q1 2025.
- Strategy (MSTR) has consistently added to its Bitcoin holdings every quarter since August 2020, demonstrating strong commitment.
- The company's stock has outperformed major indices and asset classes, appreciating 2,887% since adopting its Bitcoin strategy.
- Strategy (MSTR) has introduced innovative securities like Strike and Strife, providing new investment opportunities and capital sources.
Negative Points
- Total software revenues declined by 3.6% year over year, reflecting challenges in transitioning from on-prem to cloud services.
- The company reported a $5.9 billion unrealized fair market value loss due to Bitcoin price decline in Q1 2025.
- High volatility in Bitcoin prices leads to significant swings in earnings, impacting financial stability.
- The market treats Strategy (MSTR)'s credit instruments as distressed debt, resulting in wide credit spreads.
- The company's aggressive capital raising strategy may lead to potential dilution concerns among shareholders.
