- China is in the midst of opening its markets to global investors while encouraging local investment abroad.
- China’s offshore markets remain heavily traded, and the government is now providing access to its onshore markets in several key ways.
- PIMCO will continue to strive to provide top-quality investment solutions to China investors as they look globally and to global investors as they evaluate this important and growing market.
China is in the midst of opening its markets to global investors while encouraging local investment abroad. In the following interview, Eric Mogelof, Luke Spajic, Haining Yin and Isaac Meng discuss the progress so far and what these developments mean for investors.
Q: Why are investors increasingly focused on China?
Eric Mogelof: It is no secret that China has become a critical part of the global economy. Long important in international trade, China also now stands as the world’s largest economy in purchasing-power parity terms and meaningfully affects global growth, inflation and debt dynamics.
In addition, China’s economy is growing in accessibility to investors. Beijing continues to actively explore avenues to open its capital account to offshore investors, and the toolkit of financial instruments available to investors in China continues to grow.
Accordingly, PIMCO sees China-based investments as an increasingly important part of investor portfolios, migrating from tactical allocations – often within broader equity or fixed income strategies – to strategic allocations, and we have assembled a broad team specifically focused on China to make this increasingly important market accessible to our clients.
Q: What is PIMCO’s assessment of the macro climate in China?
Isaac Meng: PIMCO has consistently held below-consensus views on China’s growth prospects, and we continue to do so. Chinese officials themselves now refer to a “New Normal” for the Chinese economy of “around” 7% growth, and we continue to think that GDP growth in China will fall short of that. For 2015 we see growth in the low 6% territory, with mild disinflationary pressures emerging. Indeed, China is dealing with a property slowdown and deleveraging of the shadow banking system, and can no longer rely on low wages and a competitive currency to support an endless export boom.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has begun to ease rates and reserve requirements, aiming for a soft landing, and we expect more intensified easing to follow, including potential balance sheet expansion. In terms of the currency, while there is a risk that China could enter a currency war and engineer a competitive devaluation of the yuan, this scenario is unlikely in our view for two reasons: First, Chinese officials seem genuine in their desire to transition to a more domestic-consumption-based growth model; second, they continue to aspire to global reserve currency status for the yuan.
Q: What are Chinese policymakers’ strategic objectives for China’s financial markets?
Haining Yin: The macro picture in China sets a critical stage for policymakers to accelerate the government’s structural reform agenda, an important part of which is to deepen domestic financial markets. After a decade of strong economic growth, China needs more efficient financial intermediation to deploy excess savings back into the real economy. That requires an effective market for capital allocation, sophisticated domestic investors and more participation from global institutions.
So China will continue to move towards opening the capital account and making the yuan a convertible global currency. We also expect China’s fixed income market, which now consists primarily of government and corporate bonds, to develop other sectors and instruments, offering additional opportunities for global investors to gain exposure to China.
Q: What avenues are available to global investors seeking access to China’s markets?
”‹Mogelof: The Chinese government is continuously exploring options for global investors to gain greater access to the Chinese equity and debt markets. This effort has historically centered on the offshore Chinese markets, including “H” shares ”’ Chinese companies traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange – as well as dim sum bonds ”’ yuan-denominated bonds issued outside of China.
While the offshore markets remain heavily traded, Chinese policymakers and global investors are increasingly focusing on the onshore markets as well. China is providing access to its onshore capital account in four key ways:
- Through the “Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor” (QFII) and the “Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor” (RQFII) programs;
- By granting direct yuan investment quotas;
- By connecting onshore and offshore stock exchanges (e.g., Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect); and
- Through bilateral arrangements, such as the Hong Kong mutual recognition initiative (under consideration).
Q: To what extent is PIMCO participating in these programs, and how do we see them evolving?
Yin: PIMCO participates in the QFII program and has applied to participate in the RQFII program. The assets purchased through these quotas are deployed on behalf of our investors in a variety of ways, including within PIMCO’s global bond, Asia local bond and global asset allocation strategies. Notably, we continue to hear interest from clients in a dedicated China strategy, which would allow global investors to access these assets while potentially benefiting from PIMCO’s active management.
Mogelof:Â In terms of the Stock Connect, PIMCO’s Singapore equity trading desk is set up to access products referencing Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect shares, and aims to begin direct investing in eligible shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange for our mutual funds in the near future.
Finally, PIMCO sees a distinct possibility that bilateral programs could be extended to other countries or regulatory regimes, including UCITS, (Undertakings for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities) over the secular horizon. So, down the road, we see a strong possibility that PIMCO solutions could be delivered through these vehicles.
Meng:Â In addition to these onshore opportunities, we actively use offshore interest rate trading instruments to express our China macro views and will continue to do so.
Q: What are PIMCO’s highest-conviction China investment strategies? Where do we see the greatest value for our investors?
LukeSpajic: With the opening up of Chinese onshore markets, there are four key factors that investors will look at: liquidity, value, diversification and the currency.
LocalChina markets, despite their massive size, do not yet offer the level of liquidity that full engagement with the globalmarkets would necessitate. For now, liquidity availability will evolve at the pace dictated by regulators; however, this pace is quickening. That’s why the architecture we’ve discussed and its build-out are so important.
In our view, the value proposition is clear given the high real rates on offer. We see value in buying government bonds, as well as quasi-sovereign and bank debt. The local yield curves across these asset classes are quite flat. The five-to-seven-year part of the government curve, at 3.3% on average, offers more value per unit of duration than the 10-year at 3.4%. In credit markets, we find value in shorter-dated bank paper – for instance, one-year certificates of deposit in solid Chinese banks.
We also hold a favorable view on Chinese equities, which we have expressed in both dedicated emerging market equity portfolios and our global asset allocation investments.
On diversification, as Eric mentioned, we think it’s only a matter of time before China’s worldwide economic footprint translates into global fixed income investors owning more Chinese assets, especially with developed markets offering such low yields in comparison.
It’s important to note that our local rate and credit market views on China are predicated on currency stability, which reduces volatility and uncertainty for investors. Our strong currency view is both a key call and a key factor in anchoring our real rate expectations.
