Mead Johnson (NYSE:MJN) was another stock we incrementally added to during the quarter. We think news of increased price competition in the Chinese infant formula market is related to short-term distribution channel shifts, while the market perceives it as a threat to MJN's long-term earnings power. Importantly, we think very little of Mead Johnson's long-term value-added stems from manipulating channel economics. Instead, we think MJN's roughly, century-old track record of producing safe and scientifically differentiated infant formula continues to offer exceptional value relative to unproven, albeit cheaper, competing products - particularly in markets with less developed food supplies.
We estimate that up to about a third of Mead Johnson's revenues are derived from Chinese mainland demand, with the Company supplying this market through four distribution channels. While that strikes us as being a particularly inefficient way to serve a market, we have thus far concluded it to be a necessary evil, more reflective of consumer culture and preference, and less indicative of any sort of supply-driven logic. Regardless, Mead Johnson continues to invest in its Chinese distribution efforts, especially given recent changes related to the easing of China's notorious family planning (e.g. "one child") policies, which could well likely open the door to an expanding addressable market. With shares trading near historically attractive levels relative to MJN's earnings prospects, we added to positions.
From David Rolfe (Trades, Portfolio)'s Wedgewood Partners third quarter 2015 letter.
