3 Reasons to Buy Dollar Tree Over Target

Dollar Tree has higher long-term returns

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Dollar Tree Stores Inc. (DLTR, Financial) is an operator of discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00. The company offers a selection of everyday basic products and also supplements them with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. As of July 6, 2015, the company operated more than 13,600 stores across 48 states and five Canadian provinces. Its stores operate under the brands of Dollar Tree, Dollar Tree Canada, Deals and Family Dollar.

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Reason 1
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Dollar Tree (DLTR, Financial) Ƃ Ƃ Target (TGT, Financial) Ƃ
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Stock price performance Ƃ Ƃ Stock price performance Ƃ
Beta 1.072 Ƃ Beta 0.5784
One-month price returns (daily) -5.84% Ƃ One-month price returns (daily) 4.45%
Three-month price returns (daily) -38.66% Ƃ Three-month price returns (daily) 2.51%
Six-month price returns (daily) -53.48% Ƃ Six-month price returns (daily) -10.57%
Year-to-date price returns (daily) -28.66% Ƃ Year-to-date price returns (daily) -0.40%
One-year price returns (daily) 45.08% Ƃ One-year price returns (daily) -5.69%
Three-year price returns (daily) 270.30% Ƃ Three-year price returns (daily) 16.89%
52-week high (daily) 139.58 Ƃ 52-week high (daily) 85.81
52-week low (daily) 43.22 Ƃ 52-week low (daily) 66.4

From the above data, we can see that the beta value of Dollar Tree is significantly higher than Target, so Dollar Tree is somewhat risker. Target, however, had better short-term returns, whileƂ Dollar Tree had better long-run returns.

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Reason 2

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Historical EPS diluted (TTM) data

Dollar Tree Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Ƃ Target

Oct. 31, 2015

1.228

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Oct. 31, 2015

-1.108

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July 31, 2015

1.518

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July 31, 2015

-1.428

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April 30, 2015

2.568

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April 30, 2015

-2.238

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Jan. 31, 2015

2.898

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Jan. 31, 2015

-2.558

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Oct. 31, 2014

2.919

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Oct. 31, 2014

2.395

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July 31, 2014

2.859

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July 31, 2014

2.385

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April 30, 2014

2.829

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April 30, 2014

2.965

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Jan. 31, 2014

2.749

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Jan. 31, 2014

3.075

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Oct. 31, 2013

2.735

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Oct. 31, 2013

3.725

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July 31, 2013

2.835

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July 31, 2013

4.145

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April 30, 2013

2.785

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April 30, 2013

4.255

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Jan. 31, 2013

2.695

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Jan. 31, 2013

4.525

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Oct. 31, 2012

2.489

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Oct. 31, 2012

4.514

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July 31, 2012

2.239

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July 31, 2012

4.374

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April 30, 2012

2.119

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April 30, 2012

4.344

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Jan. 31, 2012

2.029

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Jan. 31, 2012

4.294

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Oct. 31, 2011

1.875

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Oct. 31, 2011

4.289

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July 31, 2011

1.81

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July 31, 2011

4.209

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April 30, 2011

1.725

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April 30, 2011

4.099

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Jan. 31, 2011

1.56

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Jan. 31, 2011

4.009

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Oct. 31, 2010

1.422

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Oct. 31, 2010

3.798

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EPS is the amount of net income earned per share of stock outstanding. In other words, this is the amount of money each share of stock would receive if all of the profits were distributed to the outstanding shares at the end of the year.Ƃ

Dollar Tree last released its earnings results on Nov. 24, 2015. The company reported 38 cents earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of 53 cents.

Reason 3

Over the next five years, the analysts that follow this company are expecting it to grow earnings at an average annual rate of 17.73%. This year, analysts are forecasting earnings decrease of 20.03% over last year. Analysts expect earnings growth next year of 49.71% over this year's forecasted earnings.

A number of equities research analysts recently commented on the stock. Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Dollar Tree from an ā€œunderweightā€ rating to an ā€œequal weightā€ rating and upped their price target for the company from $65.00 to $90.00. Vetr upgraded shares of Dollar Tree from a ā€œbuyā€ rating to a ā€œstrong-buyā€ rating and set a $94.26 price target for the company in a report on Feb. 8.

Telsey Advisory Group upgraded shares of Dollar Tree from a ā€œmarket performā€ rating to an ā€œoutperformā€ rating and upped their price target for the company from $80.00 to $95.00. Cleveland Research assumed coverage on shares of Dollar Tree in a report on Jan. 27. They set a ā€œbuyā€ rating for the company. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a ā€œbuyā€ rating on shares of Dollar Tree in a report on Jan. 20. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, nine have issued a hold rating, 12 have assigned a buy rating and three have given a strong buy rating to the stock. The stock currently has an average rating of ā€œBuyā€ and a consensus price target of $86.91.

Since its actual price of $79.44 is less than the theoretical price of $86.91, it is better to buy and hold.