Bill Nygren Gets Better Than Fair Value for 3 Stakes

Only divestitures of American Express, Union Pacific were short of calculations

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May 29, 2016
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Bill Nygren (Trades, Portfolio) of Oakmark Fund sold more stakes in the first quarter – five – than he had in more than a year. In all but two of those transactions, he sold the shares for well in excess of their fair values.

Nygren’s most noteworthy transaction in the first quarter was the sale of his 4.8 million-share stake in American Express Co. (AXP, Financial), a banking and financial services company based in New York City, for an average price of $58.34 per share. The divestiture had a -2.06% impact on Nygren’s portfolio.

American Express’ leading shareholder among the gurus is Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) with a stake of 151,610,700 shares. The stake is 15.94% of American Express’ outstanding shares and 7.24% of Buffett’s total assets.

American Express has a P/E of 13.1, a forward P/E of 11.7, a P/B of 3.1 and a P/S of 2. GuruFocus gives American Express a Financial Strength rating of 4/10 and a Profitability and Growth rating of 8/10.

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American Express sold for $65.52 per share Friday. The DCF Calculator gives American Express a fair value of $61.17, which exceeds what Nygren received for the shares but currently results in a margin of safety of -7%.

Nygren sold his 4,066,000-share stake in General Mills Inc. (GIS, Financial), a Golden Valley, Minnesota-based food processing company, for an average price of $58.04 per share. The divestiture had a -1.45% impact on Nygren’s portfolio.

General Mills’ leading shareholder among the gurus is now Mairs and Power (Trades, Portfolio) with a stake of 3,273,319 shares. The stake is 0.55% of General Mills’ outstanding shares and 2.95% of Mairs and Power (Trades, Portfolio)’s total assets.

General Mills has a P/E of 25.7, a forward P/E of 20.8, a P/B of 7.6 and a P/S of 2.3. GuruFocus gives General Mills a Financial Strength rating of 7/10 and a Profitability and Growth rating of 8/10.

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General Mills sold for $62.87 per share Friday. The DCF Calculator gives General Mills a fair value of $27.82 for a margin of safety of -126%.

Nygren sold his 2,950,000-share stake in Union Pacific Corp. (UNP, Financial), the principal operating company of Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific Railroad, for an average price of $77.26 per share. The divestiture had a -1.42% impact on Nygren’s portfolio.

Union Pacific’s leading shareholder among the gurus is Dodge & Cox with a stake of 12,252,674 shares. The stake is 1.46% of Union Pacific’s outstanding shares and 0.95% of Dodge & Cox’s total assets.

Union Pacific has a P/E of 15.6, a forward P/E of 14.3, a P/B of 3.4 and a P/S of 3.4. GuruFocus gives Union Pacific a Financial Strength rating of 8/10 and a Profitability and Growth rating of 9/10.

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Union Pacific sold for $82.97 per share Friday. The DCF Calculator gives Union Pacific a fair value of $152.31, resulting in a margin of safety of 46%.

The guru sold his 1.6 million-share stake in Ferrari NV (RACE, Financial), the Amsterdam-based automaker, for an average price of $40.38 per share. The divestiture had a -0.38% impact on Nygren’s portfolio.

Ferrari’s leading shareholder among the gurus now Mohnish Pabrai (Trades, Portfolio) with a stake of 1,277,192 shares. The stake is 0.52% of Ferrari’s outstanding shares and 15.39% of Pabrai’s total assets.

Ferrari has a P/E of 29.6, a forward P/E of 20.5, a P/B of 103.9 and a P/S of 2.5. GuruFocus gives Ferrari a Financial Strength rating of 7/10 and a Profitability and Growth rating of 4/10.

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Ferrari sold for $41.98 per share Friday. The DCF Calculator gives Ferrari a fair value of $16.34, producing a margin of safety of -157%.

Nygren exited his position in Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK, Financial), a petroleum company based in Oklahoma City, with the sale of his 12 million-share stake for an average price of $3.52 per share. The divestiture had a -0.33% impact on Nygren’s portfolio.

Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio) is Chesapeake’s leading shareholder among the gurus with a stake of 73,050,000 shares. The stake is 10.67% of Chesapeake’s outstanding shares and 1.4% of Icahn’s total assets.

Chesapeake has a forward P/E of 9 and a P/S of 0.2. GuruFocus gives Chesapeake a Financial Strength rating of 4/10 and a Profitability and Growth rating of 6/10.

Chesapeake sold for $4.16 per share Friday. The DCF Calculator gives Chesapeake a fair value of $-194.34.

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