David Dreman: 2007: Good, Not Great

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Feb 02, 2007
What's in store for 2007? Falling oil and commodity prices should help most of the stocks in the S&P 500, so I still don't think it's time to play Chicken Little.


True, there should be some speed bumps ahead and even a correction of 10% or more. But when the smoke clears I believe that 2007 will be a mildly positive year. Earnings should come in somewhat higher than the estimated $81 posted by the S&P Index in 2006, though the gain will be smaller than last year's expected 14%-to-15% gain over 2005.


Still, stocks, at 17.6 times 2006 earnings (excluding nonrecurring items), are at their lowest valuations in almost a decade. Other markets such as bonds and real estate are just too risky at their current levels.


Keep the quality of your portfolio high and you should have a rewarding, if not sensational, year, with price appreciation of 5% or more and whatever dividend yield you bargain for.


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