The numbers are in and it’s official: The tail end of 2008 stank too, making for a complete set of matching god-awful quarters.
Starting at the top, U.S. GDP “officially” shrank 3.8% in Q4, supposedly the worst performance in the past quarter century. For the year (come on, I have to do this, but read it fast, like pulling off a Band-Aid or such), the Commerce Department says we grew a mere 1.3%, down from a blistering 2% in 2007.
But wait (as they like to say on those cheap TV ads for Chinese tomato slicers): There’s more! This is only a “preliminary number,” Commerce warns in the fine print, and subject to downward revision once no one is paying attention.
Feeling bummed yet? Down in the mouth? It gets worse before it gets better. (It does, however, get better by the end, so please, bear with me and read on.)
Bad News and Worse? Remember when Professor Nouriel Roubini was considered a rogue outsider for his steadfast insistence that we were headed for a fall? Now he is lauded at Davos as prescient by the very folks who used to excoriate him.
Roubini celebrated his ascendancy to the “in-crowd” by musing as to whether we might be in a genuine depression: “I’m not a permanent bear. I’ll be the first to call for a recovery, but I just don’t see it yet, and it just keeps getting uglier.”
Roubini wasn’t the only one moping about Davos last week. Megalithic publisher Rupert Murdoch notes that people worldwide are “depressed and traumatized” as their life savings evaporates: “It really doesn’t matter where you’re talking about in the world. There’s no hiding place…”
Upon hearing such moaning and groaning, analysts promptly downgraded Murdoch’s News Corp (NWSA, Financial) for the fifth time in five months. “While we have long viewed Rupert Murdoch as the most visionary CEO… we are increasingly surprised/frustrated with his lack of strategic direction.”
No Reason to Quit
Hey guys: It’s hard to remember that your goal was to drain the swamp when you are up to your behind in alligators. That’s what makes it a depression – everyone gets so damned depressed they can’t see anything good coming down the pike. “It’s bad now, and it’ll always be like this.”
It ain’t true when your gawky 13-year-old drama-queen daughter says it about middle school, and it ain’t true when mawkish down-in-the-mouth analysts and petrified economists say it about the stock market.
Oh, I’m not saying that times are good, or that it’s easy for a company to gin up profits these days. Lord knows the list of folks announcing losses is as long as my arm. And quite frankly some of them deserve it.
Sorting Out the Winners
I mean come on: Kodak (EK, Financial) could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad. Boeing (BA, Financial) allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come. And poor old Ford (F, Financial) may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
But there are companies out there bucking even this horrendous headwind, by making a great deal of money for their stockholders. Exxon Mobil (XOM, Financial) for example, has just announced that they not only made money, they made $45.2 billion in 2008. That is more profits than anyone else. Anywhere. Ever.
The funny thing about Exxon Mobil is that no matter how many times they put out this statement, no one ever believes that they can do it again. “It’s a fluke! Oil prices are too high… oil prices are too low… yadda, yadda, yadda.”
“They Can’t Possibly Do It Again” (and Again and Again and Again)
This season’s complaint is that Exxon Mobil’s profits for the last quarter are down 33% from the previous quarter one year ago, because they produced 1% less raw product. They do seem to have managed to make $7.82 billion dollars anyway.
Look, I understand as much as the next guy that past performance does not necessarily indicate future gains. And yes, times are hard and threatening to get worse.
But you shouldn’t let depression blind you to the fact that XOM is still producing enormous quantities of cash during the worst quarter in the past quarter century... a quarter that saw most of their friends on the exchange floor losing their shirts (and their lunches).
So yes, I was – and am still – long XOM shares and XOM calls.
Yours truly,
Adam Lass,
Senior Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Taipan Publishing Group
[url=null]null[/url]
Starting at the top, U.S. GDP “officially” shrank 3.8% in Q4, supposedly the worst performance in the past quarter century. For the year (come on, I have to do this, but read it fast, like pulling off a Band-Aid or such), the Commerce Department says we grew a mere 1.3%, down from a blistering 2% in 2007.
But wait (as they like to say on those cheap TV ads for Chinese tomato slicers): There’s more! This is only a “preliminary number,” Commerce warns in the fine print, and subject to downward revision once no one is paying attention.
Feeling bummed yet? Down in the mouth? It gets worse before it gets better. (It does, however, get better by the end, so please, bear with me and read on.)
Bad News and Worse? Remember when Professor Nouriel Roubini was considered a rogue outsider for his steadfast insistence that we were headed for a fall? Now he is lauded at Davos as prescient by the very folks who used to excoriate him.
Roubini celebrated his ascendancy to the “in-crowd” by musing as to whether we might be in a genuine depression: “I’m not a permanent bear. I’ll be the first to call for a recovery, but I just don’t see it yet, and it just keeps getting uglier.”
Roubini wasn’t the only one moping about Davos last week. Megalithic publisher Rupert Murdoch notes that people worldwide are “depressed and traumatized” as their life savings evaporates: “It really doesn’t matter where you’re talking about in the world. There’s no hiding place…”
Upon hearing such moaning and groaning, analysts promptly downgraded Murdoch’s News Corp (NWSA, Financial) for the fifth time in five months. “While we have long viewed Rupert Murdoch as the most visionary CEO… we are increasingly surprised/frustrated with his lack of strategic direction.”
No Reason to Quit
Hey guys: It’s hard to remember that your goal was to drain the swamp when you are up to your behind in alligators. That’s what makes it a depression – everyone gets so damned depressed they can’t see anything good coming down the pike. “It’s bad now, and it’ll always be like this.”
It ain’t true when your gawky 13-year-old drama-queen daughter says it about middle school, and it ain’t true when mawkish down-in-the-mouth analysts and petrified economists say it about the stock market.
Oh, I’m not saying that times are good, or that it’s easy for a company to gin up profits these days. Lord knows the list of folks announcing losses is as long as my arm. And quite frankly some of them deserve it.
Sorting Out the Winners
I mean come on: Kodak (EK, Financial) could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad. Boeing (BA, Financial) allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come. And poor old Ford (F, Financial) may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
But there are companies out there bucking even this horrendous headwind, by making a great deal of money for their stockholders. Exxon Mobil (XOM, Financial) for example, has just announced that they not only made money, they made $45.2 billion in 2008. That is more profits than anyone else. Anywhere. Ever.
The funny thing about Exxon Mobil is that no matter how many times they put out this statement, no one ever believes that they can do it again. “It’s a fluke! Oil prices are too high… oil prices are too low… yadda, yadda, yadda.”
“They Can’t Possibly Do It Again” (and Again and Again and Again)
This season’s complaint is that Exxon Mobil’s profits for the last quarter are down 33% from the previous quarter one year ago, because they produced 1% less raw product. They do seem to have managed to make $7.82 billion dollars anyway.
Look, I understand as much as the next guy that past performance does not necessarily indicate future gains. And yes, times are hard and threatening to get worse.
But you shouldn’t let depression blind you to the fact that XOM is still producing enormous quantities of cash during the worst quarter in the past quarter century... a quarter that saw most of their friends on the exchange floor losing their shirts (and their lunches).
So yes, I was – and am still – long XOM shares and XOM calls.
Yours truly,
Adam Lass,
Senior Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly
Taipan Publishing Group
[url=null]null[/url]
