In addition, we believe we are at an end to the historic ultra-low interest rate environment of the past several years. The interest rate outlook is something we pay attention to as equity investors. The low interest rate environment of the past several years has led to a market posture, broadly speaking, where investors have favored dividend paying stocks over bonds. Comparing 3M corporate debt to 3M stock (NYSE:MMM) illustrates the point nicely. During September 2016, 3M issued a new 10 year bond paying 2.25 percent. Meanwhile the dividend yield on 3M stock was roughly 2.50 percent, creating a significant relative value challenge to the bonds. For example, if you invested $100 in a 3M bond, you would earn $2.25 annually and get your $100 back when the bond matured at the end of 10 years. If you invested $100 in 3M stock you would get $250 the first year and quite likely more the next year and subsequent years (3Ms dividend has grown 15 percent annually for the past five years) and you’d also expect your $100 investment in the stock to be worth more after ten years. Thus, aside from the relative safety of bonds vs. stocks, bonds did not offer a compelling economic advantage over stocks in 2016. While we don’t expect this relative value gap to entirely swing the other way, we do think that the relative attractiveness of bonds could increase in 2017 and 2018 if, in fact, rates do rise, lessening the demand for some stocks.
From Mairs and Power (Trades, Portfolio)'s first-quarter 2017 Growth Fund commentary.
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