Gross Domestic Product: A Poor Predictor of Stock Markets Returns

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Sep 18, 2009
With the economic adversity of the last two years, many market participants and the financial media seem to increasingly focus on economic measures such as gross domestic product (“GDP”) in weighing investment timing decisions. Implicit in this interest is an assumption that an increase in GDP might signal when economic conditions are more favorable and more conducive to higher stock market returns.

Investors should be aware that research indicates GDP has historically been a poor predictor of stock market returns, both in the United States and in international markets. Market participants who wait for GDP levels to improve before investing may find themselves on the sidelines, missing out on remarkable opportunities in the stock market.

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