Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) discussed market cycles with several colleagues in a video released recently by the firm.
Cycles are particularly important to Marks, who made them the central theme of his book released early in October, “Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.” By observing the cyclical nature of credit, real estate and stocks, Marks has argued that investors can better prepare to capitalize on volatility.
In the conversation, Marks and his fellow portfolio managers cover cycles in psychology and emerging markets, as well as upcoming opportunities and the frustratingly vague nature of cycles.
“We want to take advantage of cycles,” Marks said. “We believe there will be cycles. We don’t know when. This is really the fact of life that we accept, we live within, we fashion our behavior to meet. The market is not an accommodating machine, Peter Bernstein once told me. It will not give you high returns because you need them. And it will not give you a cycle because you have a lot of money.”
Marks also shared his “first and probably most important” lesson in cycles that he learned in 1974, when someone gave him the three stages of a bull market.
Watch the video here.
