Mauboussin on Strategy: See for Yourself (Don't Overpay for Wine)

Dec 07, 2009

In this piece, Michael discusses the problems that can arise when we fail to check the primary source for any important assertion we see or hear.

In doing research for my latest book, Think Twice, I was delighted to bump into an equation that predicted the value of wines from Bordeaux without relying on anyone from the swirl, sip, and swish crowd. The formula is in Supercrunchers, a book by Ian Ayres, which celebrates the use of statistics to solve common economic problems. As someone ignorant about wines and sympathetic to the analytical approach, I found it to be a pearl. Here is the equation, as Ayres presents it:

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