On Friday, the Labor Department reported a loss of 85,000 in nonfarm payrolls, coupled with a net downward revision of 1000 jobs over the preceding two months. While that job loss was considered a negative surprise, the only real surprise is that the consensus expectation was for positive growth in nonfarm payrolls in the first place. As I noted last month, a sustained move to fewer than 400,000 new weekly unemployment claims over more than 4 weeks or so is probably where we would expect to observe predictable job growth.
The focus of analyst commentary on Friday was that "although the layoffs have stopped, we're not yet seeing job creation." It seems strange to say that layoffs have stopped on a day where 85,000 payroll losses are reported, and reflects the likelihood that investors are still trading on the green-shoots theme that things are not getting worse, rather than looking at the full economic picture and the very different challenges that we face today compared with typical post-war economic recoveries.
Click to finish reading the complete John Hussman Weekly Market Comment.
The focus of analyst commentary on Friday was that "although the layoffs have stopped, we're not yet seeing job creation." It seems strange to say that layoffs have stopped on a day where 85,000 payroll losses are reported, and reflects the likelihood that investors are still trading on the green-shoots theme that things are not getting worse, rather than looking at the full economic picture and the very different challenges that we face today compared with typical post-war economic recoveries.
Click to finish reading the complete John Hussman Weekly Market Comment.
