AST SpaceMobile Inc

AST SpaceMobile is transitioning from an R&D-stage startup to operational scaleup, with significant progress evident over the last quarter. Despite the loss of the BB7 satellite due to a launch failure, the company has 42 satellites in advanced production stages and has received FCC authorization for its service in the U.S. The company holds approximately $3.5B in cash, sufficient to fund its constellation buildout without needing additional capital. The manufacturing capabilities have expanded significantly, with a global footprint exceeding 500,000 square feet and plans for further expansion. This scaleup positions AST for strong future growth.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has shown significant progress as it transitions from an R&D-stage startup to operational scale-up. The company's Q1 earnings update revealed full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9M, driven by 15 commercial gateway deliveries across nine MNO customers on five continents. With 2026 revenue guidance set at $150–200M, management is optimistic about doubling revenue, supported by a $1.2B contracted backlog. Despite a setback with BB7's orbit placement, the company is well-positioned with pro forma liquidity near $3.5B, sufficient to fund its constellation buildout without further market raises. The manufacturing scale-up is evident, with operational facilities supporting over ten satellites per month and a target of approximately 45 satellites in orbit by December.

AST SpaceMobile made significant strides in Q3 toward commercializing its space-based cellular broadband network, transitioning from an R&D oriented business to one focused on scaled deployment and commercialization. The company aims to erase coverage gaps and provide affordable broadband to billions, positioning itself for initial service rollout in 2026. The manager views AST as a generational investment opportunity, with its equity remaining grotesquely mispriced based on normalized EBITDA estimates. Even conservative scenarios support cash flows that make today's multiple on steady-state earnings look cartoonishly low for a business with this moat and growth profile.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has shown substantial appreciation, up 100%+, indicating strong market confidence in its growth potential. The company operates in the satellite communications sector, which is poised for significant expansion as demand for connectivity increases globally. Greenhaven Road Capital believes that AST SpaceMobile possesses durable competitive advantages that will drive its long-term success. The investment thesis is supported by the belief that the market has yet to fully recognize the intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, suggesting a disconnect between share price and business progress.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has shown significant appreciation, being up 100%+, which reflects strong business progress. The manager believes that the intrinsic value of their holdings, including AST SpaceMobile, is much higher than the current market prices suggest. This disconnect indicates a potential for future growth as the market recognizes the true value of the business. The focus on durable competitive advantages and multi-year growth potential aligns with the long-term investment strategy of the fund.