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Sky Deutschland AG (LTS:0QXE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : €-4.86 (As of Dec13)


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What is Sky Deutschland AG Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Dec13, Sky Deutschland AG's earnings power value is €-4.86. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Sky Deutschland AG Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Sky Deutschland AG Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Sky Deutschland AG Annual Data
Trend Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
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Sky Deutschland AG Semi-Annual Data
Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Broadcasting subindustry, Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Sky Deutschland AG Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Sky Deutschland AG's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 5 Years Last Year
Revenue 1,179
DDA 139
Operating Margin % -29.15
SGA * 25% 77
Tax Rate % -0.87
Maintenance Capex 80
Cash and Cash Equivalents 199
Short-Term Debt 19
Long-Term Debt 533
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 872

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -29.15%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = €1,179 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -29.15%, Average Adjusted SGA = 77,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 1,179 * -29.15% +77 = €-266.36900464 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -0.87%, and "Normalized" EBIT = €-266.36900464 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -266.36900464 * ( 1 - -0.87% ) = €-268.68108760028 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 139 * 0.5 * -0.87% = €-0.602842492 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -268.68108760028 + -0.602842492 = €-269.28393009228 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Sky Deutschland AG's Average Maintenance CAPEX = €80 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Sky Deutschland AG's current cash and cash equivalent = €199 Mil.
Sky Deutschland AG's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 533 + 19 = €551.613 Mil.
Sky Deutschland AG's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 872 Mil.

Sky Deutschland AG's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec13 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -269.28393009228 - 80)/ 9%+199-551.613 )/872
=-4.86

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -4.8564131485816-6.50 )/-4.8564131485816
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Sky Deutschland AG  (LTS:0QXE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Sky Deutschland AG Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Sky Deutschland AG (LTS:0QXE) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Sky Deutschland AG is a Germany-based holding company established in 2002. The Company along with its subsidiaries operates a pay-TV business in Germany and Austria under the Sky trademark. The Company's package includes: Sky Welt Package, Fußball Bundesliga Package, Premium Bundesliga HD channels, Sport Package, Premium Sport HD Channels, Film Package and Premium Film HD Channels. The Company is also engaged in the purchase, sale and distribution of rights to films, series and TV productions, the acquisition, sale and distribution of broadcasting rights for public events, the arrangement of program magazine subscriptions, and other activities associated with the operation of the pay-TV business. The Company's services includes: Sky Go, Sky+, Sky Anytime, and Sky Home. Its offers channels of various genres, which includes; Sky Sports News HD, Sky Cinema HD, Sky Atlantic HD, Sky Sport HD, Sky Bundesliga and Sky Select HD. The Company competes with platform operators offering both pay-TV packages and VoD services. It also competes with over-the-top players who provide video-on-demand and subscription-video-on-demand entertainment via the Internet.

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