AHT (Ashford Hospitality Trust) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.47% (As of Dec. 14, 2024)

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What is Ashford Hospitality Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.47%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the REIT - Hotel & Motel subindustry, Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ashford Hospitality Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Ashford Hospitality Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-5.36

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.47%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Ashford Hospitality Trust (NYSE:AHT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Ashford Hospitality Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Ashford Hospitality Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (NYSE:AHT) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHTpI.PFD:USA AHTpH.PFD:USA AHTpG.PFD:USA AHTpF.PFD:USA AHTpD.PFD:USA

Address

14185 Dallas Parkway, Suite 1200, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.ahtreit.com

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in full-service upscale and upper-upscale hotel properties in the U.S. The company owns and operates its assets through its operating partnership, Ashford Hospitality Limited Partnership. All of its hotels are located across the U.S. and operate under the Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Crowne Plaza, and Sheraton brands. Ashford's sole segment is Direct Hotel Investments, through which it owns hotels by acquisition or development. Ashford also provides rest estate investment services, such as mezzanine financing, first mortgage financing, and sales-leaseback transactions. Its revenue streams include Room revenue, Food and beverage revenue, and Other revenue. Room revenue accounts for the majority of total revenue.

Executives

Davinder Singh Sra	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75254
Deric S Eubanks	officer: Chief Financial Officer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Ansell Benjamin J Md	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
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Oaktree Aif Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp Aif, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGLES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Aif Series, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Atlas Ocm Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bam Partners Trust	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
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