GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (NAS:ASO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Academy Sports and Outdoors (Academy Sports and Outdoors) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Jun. 24, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Academy Sports and Outdoors Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Academy Sports and Outdoors Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.88

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Academy Sports and Outdoors  (NAS:ASO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Academy Sports and Outdoors Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Academy Sports and Outdoors's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Academy Sports and Outdoors (Academy Sports and Outdoors) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1800 North Mason Road, Katy, TX, USA, 77449
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is engaged in the retail business of sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. The company offers outdoor clothing, backpacks, sunglasses, luggage items, shooting equipment, fishing equipment, boating and water sports equipment, backyard recreation products, outdoor cooking equipment, fitness equipment, electronic items, dog supplies, and other products.
Executives
Jeffrey C. Tweedy director C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Samuel J Johnson officer: EVP, Retail Operations 4151 E 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Heather A. Davis officer: VP, Controller C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Ford Earl Carlton Iv officer: EVP & CFO C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 N MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Matthew M. Mccabe officer: EVP & CMO C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 N MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Michael P. Mullican officer: EVP & CFO C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Sherry L. Harriman officer: SVP, Logistics & Supply Chain C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 N MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Manish Maini officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Jamey Traywick Rutherford officer: SVP, Omnichannel C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
William S. Ennis officer: See Remarks C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Rene G. Casares officer: SVP, General Counsel C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Theresa Palermo director 1800 N MASON RD, KATY TX 77449
Beryl Raff director 5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236
Ken C Hicks director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO 150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103
Brian T Marley director