GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 50.00% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


ASX:GQG GQG Partners Inc ASX:GQG
58 GF Score
Price A$1.46
GF Value A$2.57
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is GQG Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

GQG Partners ASX:GQG -2.99% 58 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:GQG with a GF Score™ of 58/100 and a GF Value™ of A$2.57 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, GQG Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


GQG Partners  (ASX:GQG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


GQG Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


ASX:GQG vs BLK, BX, KKR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Asset Management subindustry, GQG Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


GQG Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, GQG Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where GQG Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ASX:GQG
58GF Score
GQG Partners Inc ASX:GQG
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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GQG Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% mean?
GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is GQG Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
GQG Partners' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. Overall, GQG Partners has a GF Score™ of 58/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does GQG Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BLK and BX?
GQG Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% can be compared against companies in the Asset Management industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Asset Management company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Asset Management industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. GQG Partners's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is GQG Partners stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$2.57, compared to a current price of A$1.46 — trading 43.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. GQG Partners' overall GF Score™ is 58/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For GQG Partners (ASX:GQG), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, GQG Partners stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of A$1.46 is trading 43.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$2.57. GuruFocus considers GQG Partners to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:GQG:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 50.00%
  • GF Value™: A$2.57 vs. price of A$1.46 (43.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 58/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:GQG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


GQG Partners Business Description

Other Exchanges 6P1:Germany
Address 350 East Las Olas Boulevard, 18th Floor, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33301
Established in 2016, GQG Partners is a global boutique asset management firm mainly focused on active equity portfolios. The company offers investment advisory and portfolio management services. GQG Partners manages money for investors around the world, including pension funds, sovereign funds, wealth management firms, and other financial institutions. Headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, GQG also has operations in New York, Seattle, London, Sydney, and other locations.
58GF Score

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$1.46
Price
A$2.57
GF Value