Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


ASX:WEB Web Travel Group Ltd ASX:WEB
74 GF Score
Price A$2.85
GF Value A$5.65
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Web Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Web Travel Group ASX:WEB -2.06% 74 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:WEB with a GF Score™ of 74/100 and a GF Value™ of A$5.65 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Web Travel Group  (ASX:WEB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Web Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


ASX:WEB vs BKNG, ABNB, RCL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Web Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ASX:WEB
74GF Score
Web Travel Group Ltd ASX:WEB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Web Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.75

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Web Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Web Travel Group has a GF Score™ of 74/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BKNG and ABNB?
Web Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Web Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Web Travel Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is A$5.65, compared to a current price of A$2.85 — trading 49.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Web Travel Group's overall GF Score™ is 74/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Web Travel Group stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of A$2.85 is trading 49.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$5.65. GuruFocus considers Web Travel Group to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for ASX:WEB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
  • GF Value™: A$5.65 vs. price of A$2.85 (49.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 74/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:WEB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Web Travel Group Business Description

Other Exchanges WEJTY:USAWBJ:Germany
Address 440 Collins Road, Level 12, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3000
Web Travel Group acts as an intermediary for hotel accommodation inventory across Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as the Americas. The group operates in the business-to-business, or B2B, space. The B2B business, WebBeds, sits between hotels and wholesale/retail travel service providers. WebBeds is presently the world's second-largest B2B accommodation booking provider despite only a 4% market share of the fragmented AUD 70 billion global B2B accommodation market.
74GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:WEB

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$2.85
Price
A$5.65
GF Value