Craft Brew Alliance (Craft Brew Alliance) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 50.00% (As of May. 05, 2024)

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is Craft Brew Alliance Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Craft Brew Alliance Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Craft Brew Alliance (NAS:BREW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Craft Brew Alliance Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Craft Brew Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Craft Brew Alliance (Craft Brew Alliance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Craft Brew Alliance Inc (NAS:BREW) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

929 North Russell Street, Portland, OR, USA, 97227-1733

Website

http://www.craftbrew.com

Craft Brew Alliance Inc is a craft brewing company and a leader in brewing, and branding American craft beers. The company's brand portfolio consists of Redhook Brewery, Widmer Brothers Brewing, Kona Brewing Company, Omission Beer, Square Mile Cider Company, and Resignation Brewery. The crafts beers are brewed and packed in the location such as Portland, Oregon the Seattle suburb of Woodinville, Washington; Portsmouth, New Hampshire, and Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Its segments are Beer Related operations and Brewpubs operations. The majority of the revenue is derived from brewing, and domestic and international sales, of craft beers and ciders.

Executives

Matthew Edgar Gilbertson	director	125 WEST 24TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10011
Timothy P Boyle	director	14375 NW SCIENCE PARK DRIVE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Christine Nicol Perich	officer: Chief Financial & Strategy Off	1413 LINDEN LAKE ROAD FORT COLLINS CO 80524
Jacqueline S Woodward	director	180 LINDEN ROAD PINEHURST NC 28374
Edwin A Smith	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Nickolas A Mills	director	ONE BUSCH PLACE ST. LOUIS MO 63118
Derek Y Hahm	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
J Scott Mennen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Kenneth C Kunze	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Andrew J. Thomas	officer: Chief Executive Officer	929 N. RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Marc J Cramer	director	P.O. BOX 4525 PORTLAND OR 97208
Kevin R Kelly	director	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
David R Lord	director	929 N RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Paul D Davis	director	4211 WILLIAMS AVENUE NORTH RENTON WA 98056
Vieira Joao Paulo Falcao	director	125 WEST 24TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10011