Blau Farmaceutica (BSP:BLAU3) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03% (As of Jul. 24, 2026)

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BSP:BLAU3 Blau Farmaceutica SA BSP:BLAU3
87 GF Score
Price R$8.98
GF Value R$11.17
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Blau Farmaceutica Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Blau Farmaceutica BSP:BLAU3 -0.77% 87 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates BSP:BLAU3 with a GF Score™ of 87/100 and a GF Value™ of R$11.17 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Blau Farmaceutica  (BSP:BLAU3) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Blau Farmaceutica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

BSP:BLAU3 vs ZTS, UTHR, VTRS: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Blau Farmaceutica Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


BSP:BLAU3
87GF Score
Blau Farmaceutica SA BSP:BLAU3
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Blau Farmaceutica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.03

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Blau Farmaceutica (BSP:BLAU3) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jul. 24, 2026.
Is Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Blau Farmaceutica's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Blau Farmaceutica has a GF Score™ of 87/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ZTS and UTHR?
Blau Farmaceutica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Drug Manufacturers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Drug Manufacturers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Blau Farmaceutica's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Blau Farmaceutica stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Blau Farmaceutica (BSP:BLAU3) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R$11.17, compared to a current price of R$8.98 — trading 19.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Blau Farmaceutica's overall GF Score™ is 87/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Blau Farmaceutica (BSP:BLAU3), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Blau Farmaceutica (BSP:BLAU3) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Blau Farmaceutica stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of R$8.98 is trading 19.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of R$11.17. GuruFocus considers Blau Farmaceutica to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for BSP:BLAU3:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
  • GF Value™: R$11.17 vs. price of R$8.98 (19.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 87/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BSP:BLAU3 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Blau Farmaceutica Business Description

Address Rodovia Raposo Tavares, No. 2833, Km 30.5, Barro Branco, Cotia, SP, BRA, 06705-030
Blau Farmaceutica SA is engaged in the manufacturing, development and commercialization of complex private-label drugs for the institutional segment. The Company's business activities cover institutional and retail segments, and are divided into four units: 1) Biologicals are a heterogeneous class of products that can be produced using raw materials from biological materials and biotechnological procedures. 2) Oncology line is made up of oral and injectable drugs intended for treating cancer, which encompasses a number of therapeutic classes. 3) Specialties line is made up of products that are used in the hospital's daily routine, in the specialized treatments for infectious diseases and special treatments. 4) Others consist of prescription and non-prescription over-the-counter drugs.
87GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BSP:BLAU3

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R$8.98
Price
R$11.17
GF Value