Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes (BSP:SCAR3) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.10% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


BSP:SCAR3 Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes SA BSP:SCAR3
57 GF Score
Price R$12.58
GF Value R$9.07
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes BSP:SCAR3 +4.66% 57 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates BSP:SCAR3 with a GF Score™ of 57/100 and a GF Value™ of R$9.07 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes  (BSP:SCAR3) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


BSP:SCAR3 vs CBRE, BEKE: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Real Estate Services subindustry, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


BSP:SCAR3
57GF Score
Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes SA BSP:SCAR3
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.93

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% mean?
Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes (BSP:SCAR3) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. Overall, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes has a GF Score™ of 57/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CBRE and BEKE?
Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% can be compared against companies in the Real Estate industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Real Estate company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes (BSP:SCAR3) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R$9.07, compared to a current price of R$12.58 — trading 38.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes' overall GF Score™ is 57/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes (BSP:SCAR3), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes (BSP:SCAR3) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of R$12.58 is trading 38.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of R$9.07. GuruFocus considers Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for BSP:SCAR3:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.10%
  • GF Value™: R$9.07 vs. price of R$12.58 (38.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 57/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BSP:SCAR3 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes Business Description

Address 153, Rua Dr. Eduardo de Souza Aranha, 12th Floor, Vila Nova Conceicao, Sao Paulo, SP, BRA, 4543904
Sao Carlos Empreend E Participacoes SA is a commercial real estate investment companies in Brazil. It is primarily involved in the management of own or third-party real estate projects, including shopping malls; purchase and sale of completed or under construction residential and office properties, land or undivided interests in the properties; property leasing; operation of short-term parking lots and others. Geographically, the group owns and operates a portfolio of high-rise office buildings and convenience centers in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The company recognizes revenue from the sale of properties.
57GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BSP:SCAR3

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R$12.58
Price
R$9.07
GF Value