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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.91%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Conifex Timber (OTCPK:CFXTF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Conifex Timber Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
CFXTF vs SSD, UFPI, BCC: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Lumber & Wood Production subindustry, Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Conifex Timber Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Forest Products Industry
For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Conifex Timber Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-3.94
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.91% mean?
Conifex Timber (CFXTF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.91% as of Jul. 16, 2026.
Is Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Conifex Timber's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.91%. Overall, Conifex Timber has a GF Score™ of 25/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to SSD and UFPI?
Conifex Timber's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.91% can be compared against companies in the Forest Products industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Forest Products company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Forest Products industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Conifex Timber's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.91%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Conifex Timber stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Conifex Timber (CFXTF) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.21, compared to a current price of $0.09 — trading 57% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.91%. Conifex Timber's overall GF Score™ is 25/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Conifex Timber (CFXTF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.91% as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Conifex Timber (CFXTF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Conifex Timber stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $0.09 is trading 57% below its estimated GF Value™ of $0.21.
GuruFocus considers Conifex Timber to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for CFXTF:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.91%
GF Value™: $0.21 vs. price of $0.09 (57% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CFXTF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Conifex Timber Inc is a Canada-based forestry company. It operates through one reportable segment comprising of activities that include timber harvesting, reforestation, forest management, processing logs into lumber and wood chips, value added lumber finishing and generation of electrical power that is complementary to the company's harvesting and manufacturing operations. The firm's main activities areas are the United States, Chinese, Canadian and Japanese markets. The revenues are generated from lumber, Lumber by-products and other, and Bioenergy. Geographically, it operates in United States, Canada and Japan. The company derives maximum revenue from United states.
25GF Score
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