OCI NV (CHIX:OCIA) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


CHIX:OCIA OCI NV CHIX:OCIA
40 GF Score
Price €3.64
GF Value €10.38
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is OCI NV Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

OCI NV CHIX:OCIA 40 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates CHIX:OCIA with a GF Score™ of 40/100 and a GF Value™ of €10.38. The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


OCI NV  (CHIX:OCIa) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


OCI NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


CHIX:OCIA vs LIN, SHW, ECL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Specialty Chemicals subindustry, OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


OCI NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


CHIX:OCIA
40GF Score
OCI NV CHIX:OCIA
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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OCI NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-10.02

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% mean?
OCI NV (CHIX:OCIA) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
OCI NV's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. Overall, OCI NV has a GF Score™ of 40/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to LIN and SHW?
OCI NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% can be compared against companies in the Chemicals industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Chemicals company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Chemicals industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. OCI NV's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is OCI NV stock overvalued right now?
OCI NV (CHIX:OCIA) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00%. The stock's GF Value™ is €10.38, compared to a current price of €3.64 — trading 64.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. OCI NV's overall GF Score™ is 40/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For OCI NV (CHIX:OCIA), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is OCI NV (CHIX:OCIA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, OCI NV stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €3.64 is trading 64.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of €10.38.

Key valuation signals for CHIX:OCIA:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00%
  • GF Value™: €10.38 vs. price of €3.64 (64.9% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 40/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CHIX:OCIA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


OCI NV Business Description

Address Honthorststraat 19, Amsterdam, NH, NLD, 1071
OCI NV manufactures and sells a variety of fertilizers and natural gas-based chemicals. The reportable segments are: Nitrogen Europe and Other. The Nitrogen Europe segment consists of OCI Nitrogen (OCIN) and OCI Terminal Europoort B.V. Nitrogen is an integrated nitrates fertilizer producer and melamine producer with a production site in Geleen, the Netherlands. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Europe.
40GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CHIX:OCIA

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€3.64
Price
€10.38
GF Value