Zad Holding Co (DSMD:ZHCD) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01% (As of Jul. 22, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

DSMD:ZHCD Zad Holding Co DSMD:ZHCD
85 GF Score
Price ر.ق12.86
GF Value ر.ق13.40
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Zad Holding Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Zad Holding Co DSMD:ZHCD +0.08% 85 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 22, 2026. GuruFocus rates DSMD:ZHCD with a GF Score™ of 85/100 and a GF Value™ of ر.ق13.40 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Zad Holding Co  (DSMD:ZHCD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Zad Holding Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

DSMD:ZHCD vs KHC, GIS, HRL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Zad Holding Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


DSMD:ZHCD
85GF Score
Zad Holding Co DSMD:ZHCD
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Zad Holding Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.85

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
Zad Holding Co (DSMD:ZHCD) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jul. 22, 2026.
Is Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Zad Holding Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, Zad Holding Co has a GF Score™ of 85/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to KHC and GIS?
Zad Holding Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Zad Holding Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Zad Holding Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zad Holding Co (DSMD:ZHCD) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is ر.ق13.40, compared to a current price of ر.ق12.86 — trading 4% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Zad Holding Co's overall GF Score™ is 85/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Zad Holding Co (DSMD:ZHCD), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 22, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Zad Holding Co (DSMD:ZHCD) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zad Holding Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ر.ق12.86 is trading 4% below its estimated GF Value™ of ر.ق13.40. GuruFocus considers Zad Holding Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for DSMD:ZHCD:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
  • GF Value™: ر.ق13.40 vs. price of ر.ق12.86 (4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 85/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the DSMD:ZHCD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Zad Holding Co Business Description

Address Al Meena Street, P.O. Box: 1444, Doha Sea Port, Doha, QAT
Zad Holding Co is engaged in the import of wheat, the production of different kinds of flour, the manufacturing, and marketing of pasta and bakery products. The Group earns income from sales of certain types of grain and related commodities. It is also engaged in the activities of contracting for building, investing, establishing, and managing industrial projects, activities in real estate, selling and renting heavy equipment, manufacturing and supplying ready-mix concrete and asphalt, crushing services, providing transport services, and investment in financial instruments. The Group's operating segments are: Trading, manufacturing, distribution and services, which generate maximum revenue, Investment and managed services, and Contracting, real estate and others.
85GF Score

Get the complete analysis for DSMD:ZHCD

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

ر.ق12.86
Price
ر.ق13.40
GF Value