FOJCF (Fortum Oyj) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


FOJCF Fortum Oyj FOJCF
65 GF Score
Price $22.00
GF Value $13.87
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Fortum Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Fortum Oyj FOJCF 65 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates FOJCF with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of $13.87 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Fortum Oyj  (OTCPK:FOJCF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Fortum Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Fortum Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Utilities - Renewable subindustry, Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Fortum Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


FOJCF
65GF Score
Fortum Oyj FOJCF
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Fortum Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.32

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Fortum Oyj (FOJCF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Fortum Oyj's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Fortum Oyj has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Fortum Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Independent Power Producers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Fortum Oyj's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fortum Oyj stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortum Oyj (FOJCF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $13.87, compared to a current price of $22.00 — trading 58.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Fortum Oyj's overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fortum Oyj (FOJCF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Fortum Oyj (FOJCF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortum Oyj stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $22.00 is trading 58.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $13.87. GuruFocus considers Fortum Oyj to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FOJCF:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: $13.87 vs. price of $22.00 (58.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FOJCF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Fortum Oyj Business Description

Address Keilalahdentie 2-4, CD Building, P.O. Box 100, Espoo, FIN, 02150
Fortum Oyj is a Finnish energy company that operates power plants that use renewable energy sources (hydro, nuclear, and solar power) to sell electricity, heat, cooling, and power products and services. The company mainly operates in Nordic and Baltic countries, Russia, Poland, and India. Its main divisions of the company are generation (large-scale power production), city solutions (sustainable energy solutions), Russia (all Russian operations), technology and new ventures (research and development and in-house incubator for startups), mergers and acquisitions, and solar and wind development. The company's operating segments are Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations.
65GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FOJCF

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$22.00
Price
$13.87
GF Value