What is Hyperion Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Biotechnology subindustry, Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Hyperion Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Hyperion Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Hyperion Therapeutics (FRA:0HY) Business Description
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Hyperion Therapeutics Inc., was incorporated in Delaware on November 1, 2006. The Company completed its initial public offering on July 2012. It is a commercial biopharmaceutical company, engaged in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat disorders in the areas of orphan diseases and hepatology. Its products, RAVICTI (glycerol phenylbutyrate) Oral liquid, BUPHENYL and AMMONAPS (sodium phenylbutyrate) Tablets and Powder, are designed to lower ammonia in the blood. The Company has developed RAVICTI to treat urea cycle disorders including 7 of the 8 prevalent UCD subtypes, and is developing glycerol phenylbutyrate, the active pharmaceutical ingredient in RAVICTI, to treat hepatic encephalopathy. RAVICTI is indicated for use as a nitrogen-binding agent for chronic management of adult and pediatric patients above 2 years of age with urea cycle disorders who cannot be managed by dietary protein restriction and/or amino acid supplementation alone. It distributes RAVICTI through two specialty pharmacies with a single dedicated call center responsible for interfacing with patients, physicians and payors. BUPHENYL is indicated in all patients with neonatal-onset deficiency (complete enzymatic deficiency, presenting within the first 28 days of life). It is also indicated in patients with late-onset disease (partial enzymatic deficiency, presenting after the first month of life) who have a history of hyperammonemic encephalopathy. The Company faces competition from established pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as from academic institutions, government agencies and private and public research institutions, among others, which may in the future develop products to treat UCD or HE. The Company is subject to numerous federal, state and local laws relating to such matters as safe working conditions, manufacturing practices, environmental protection, fire hazard control, and disposal of hazardous or potentially hazardous substances.
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