What is Athlon Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Athlon Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Athlon Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Athlon Energy (FRA:28A) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Athlon Energy Inc was founded in August 2010 and formed on April 1, 2013 as a Delaware corporation. The Company is an independent exploration and production company engaged in the acquisition, development, and exploitation of unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin spans portions of Texas and New Mexico and is composed of three primary sub-basins: the Delaware Basin, the Central Basin Platform, and the Midland Basin. All of the properties are located in the Midland Basin. The Company's drilling activity is primarily engaged in the low-risk vertical development of stacked pay zones, including the Clearfork, Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Cline, Strawn, Atoka, and Mississippian formations, referred to as the Wolfberry play, and horizontal development of the Wolfcamp. As of December 31, 2013, it had identified 2,232 gross vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing and an additional 2,616 gross vertical drilling locations on 20-acre spacing. Only 659 gross of these potential vertical drilling locations were booked as proved undeveloped reserves. As of December 31, 2013, it had also identified 1,065 gross horizontal drilling locations targeting Wolfcamp A, Wolfcamp B, Wolfcamp C, and Cline intervals, which comprise 327 gross, 362 gross, 136 gross, and 240 gross locations, respectively. Its acreage position was 127,840 gross acres at December 31, 2013. As of December 31, 2013, it had 127.3 MMBOE of proved reserves, comprised of 71.2 MMBbls of oil, 30.7 MMBbls of NGLs, and 152.2 Bcf of natural gas. The Company's facilities located at well locations include field gathering systems, storage tank batteries, saltwater disposal systems, oil/gas/water separation equipment, and pumping units. It owns 10 saltwater disposal systems with over 45,700 barrels of water per day capacity and access to over 144 fresh water supply wells throughout its acreage.
Athlon Energy (FRA:28A) Headlines
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FRA:28A has been successfully added to your