Athlon Energy (FRA:28A) Predictability Rank

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What is Athlon Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Athlon Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Athlon Energy (FRA:28A) Business Description

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http://www.athlonenergy.com

Athlon Energy Inc was founded in August 2010 and formed on April 1, 2013 as a Delaware corporation. The Company is an independent exploration and production company engaged in the acquisition, development, and exploitation of unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin spans portions of Texas and New Mexico and is composed of three primary sub-basins: the Delaware Basin, the Central Basin Platform, and the Midland Basin. All of the properties are located in the Midland Basin. The Company's drilling activity is primarily engaged in the low-risk vertical development of stacked pay zones, including the Clearfork, Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Cline, Strawn, Atoka, and Mississippian formations, referred to as the Wolfberry play, and horizontal development of the Wolfcamp. As of December 31, 2013, it had identified 2,232 gross vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing and an additional 2,616 gross vertical drilling locations on 20-acre spacing. Only 659 gross of these potential vertical drilling locations were booked as proved undeveloped reserves. As of December 31, 2013, it had also identified 1,065 gross horizontal drilling locations targeting Wolfcamp A, Wolfcamp B, Wolfcamp C, and Cline intervals, which comprise 327 gross, 362 gross, 136 gross, and 240 gross locations, respectively. Its acreage position was 127,840 gross acres at December 31, 2013. As of December 31, 2013, it had 127.3 MMBOE of proved reserves, comprised of 71.2 MMBbls of oil, 30.7 MMBbls of NGLs, and 152.2 Bcf of natural gas. The Company's facilities located at well locations include field gathering systems, storage tank batteries, saltwater disposal systems, oil/gas/water separation equipment, and pumping units. It owns 10 saltwater disposal systems with over 45,700 barrels of water per day capacity and access to over 144 fresh water supply wells throughout its acreage.

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