What is Oiltanking Partners LP Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas Midstream subindustry, Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Oiltanking Partners LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Oiltanking Partners LP Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Oiltanking Partners LP (FRA:4OT) Business Description
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Oiltanking Partners LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in March 2011. The Company engages in the terminaling, storage and transportation of crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. Its terminal assets are strategically located along the upper Gulf Coast of the United States. At December 31, 2013, the Company had nearly 22 million barrels of total active storage capacity at its Houston and Beaumont facilities. These integrated facilities are strategically located and directly connected to 23 key refining, production and storage facilities along the Gulf Coast and the Cushing, Oklahoma storage interchange through dedicated and common carrier pipelines. In addition, its facilities provide its customers deep-water access and international distribution capabilities. The Company provides services to integrated oil companies, distributors, marketers and chemical and petrochemical companies, typically under long-term commercial agreements that include minimum volume commitments and inflation escalators. It operates as a third-party crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals on the Houston Ship Channel. It provides integrated terminaling, storage, pipeline and related services for third-party companies engaged in the production, distribution and marketing of crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company faces competition from a variety of international, national and regional energy companies, including large, diversified midstream partnerships, global terminal operators and large multi-national energy companies of varying sizes, financial resources and experience. The Company's operations are subject to stringent federal, state and local laws and regulations governing the release of materials into the environment, health and safety aspects of its operations, and otherwise relating to the protection of the environment. Compliance with these laws and regulations may require the acquisition of permits to conduct regulated activities; restrict the type, quantities and concentration of wastes or other pollutants that may be emitted, discharged or disposed into or onto to the land, air and water; apply specific health and safety criteria addressing worker protection; and impose liabilities for pollution from operations.
Oiltanking Partners LP (FRA:4OT) Headlines
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