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Oiltanking Partners LP (FRA:4OT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €18.26 (As of May. 15, 2024)


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What is Oiltanking Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-15), Oiltanking Partners LP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €18.26.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Oiltanking Partners LP's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Oiltanking Partners LP is -93.37%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Oiltanking Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:4OT's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.92
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Oiltanking Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Oiltanking Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Oiltanking Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Oiltanking Partners LP Annual Data
Trend Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
- - - - -

Oiltanking Partners LP Quarterly Data
Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Oiltanking Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Oil & Gas Midstream subindustry, Oiltanking Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Oiltanking Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Oiltanking Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Oiltanking Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Oiltanking Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.36%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Oiltanking Partners LP's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €1.5822.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Oiltanking Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.5822*11.5406
=18.26

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (18.26 - 35.31) / 18.26
= -93.37 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Oiltanking Partners LP  (FRA:4OT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Oiltanking Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Oiltanking Partners LP (FRA:4OT) Business Description

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Oiltanking Partners LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in March 2011. The Company engages in the terminaling, storage and transportation of crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. Its terminal assets are strategically located along the upper Gulf Coast of the United States. At December 31, 2013, the Company had nearly 22 million barrels of total active storage capacity at its Houston and Beaumont facilities. These integrated facilities are strategically located and directly connected to 23 key refining, production and storage facilities along the Gulf Coast and the Cushing, Oklahoma storage interchange through dedicated and common carrier pipelines. In addition, its facilities provide its customers deep-water access and international distribution capabilities. The Company provides services to integrated oil companies, distributors, marketers and chemical and petrochemical companies, typically under long-term commercial agreements that include minimum volume commitments and inflation escalators. It operates as a third-party crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals on the Houston Ship Channel. It provides integrated terminaling, storage, pipeline and related services for third-party companies engaged in the production, distribution and marketing of crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company faces competition from a variety of international, national and regional energy companies, including large, diversified midstream partnerships, global terminal operators and large multi-national energy companies of varying sizes, financial resources and experience. The Company's operations are subject to stringent federal, state and local laws and regulations governing the release of materials into the environment, health and safety aspects of its operations, and otherwise relating to the protection of the environment. Compliance with these laws and regulations may require the acquisition of permits to conduct regulated activities; restrict the type, quantities and concentration of wastes or other pollutants that may be emitted, discharged or disposed into or onto to the land, air and water; apply specific health and safety criteria addressing worker protection; and impose liabilities for pollution from operations.

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