Allergan (FRA:AG4) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.00% (As of Jun. 16, 2024)

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What is Allergan Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Allergan's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Allergan Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Allergan (FRA:AG4) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

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Allergan (FRA:AG4) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Allergan Inc (FRA:AG4) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

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Allergan IncÂ incorporated in Delaware in 1977.Â It is a multi-specialty health care company. The Company is engaged in the developing and commercializing pharmaceuticals, biologics, medical devices and over-the-counter products that enable people to live life to its full potential - to see more clearly, move more freely and express themselves more fully. It offers products for the ophthalmic, neurological, medical aesthetics, medical dermatology, breast aesthetics, urological and other specialty markets in more than 100 countries around the world. It is also engaged in specialty pharmaceutical, biologic and medical device research and development. The Company's business segments are specialty pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The specialty pharmaceuticals segment produces pharmaceutical products, including: ophthalmic products for dry eye, glaucoma, inflammation, infection, allergy and retinal disease;Â BotoxÂ for certain therapeutic and aesthetic indications; skin care products for acne, psoriasis, eyelash growth and other prescription and over-the-counter skin care products; and urologics products. The medical devices segment produces medical devices, including: breast implants for augmentation, revision and reconstructive surgery and tissue expanders; and facial aesthetics products. The Company sells its products directly through itsÂ own sales subsidiaries in approximately 40 countries and, supplemented by independent distributors, in over 100 countries.Â Its products are sold to drug wholesalers, independent and chain drug stores, pharmacies, commercial optical chains, opticians, mass merchandisers, food stores, hospitals, group purchasing organizations, integrated direct hospital networks, ambulatory surgery centers, government purchasing agencies and medical practitioners. The Company also utilize distributors for its products in smaller international markets.Â The Company's competitors include Akorn, Inc., Alcon Laboratories, Inc./Novartis AG, Abbott Laboratories, Alimera Sciences, Inc., BauschÂ & Lomb, Inc., a division of Valeant, Genentech/Hoffmann La Roche AG, MerckÂ & Co., Pfizer Inc., Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Santen Seiyaku. Mentor and Sientra, Inc., or Sientra, a partner of Silimed, LifeCell Corporation, CR Bard Inc. The Company's operations are subject to federal, state, local and foreign environmental laws and regulations, including the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Act, the U.S. Toxic Substances Control Act, the U.S. Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act, Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act and other current and potential future federal, state or local regulations.

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