What is Beam Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Beam's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Beam Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Beam (FRA:BJM) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Beam Inc., is incorporated under the laws of Delaware in 1985. On May 30, 1997, the Company's name was changed from American Brands, Inc. to Fortune Brands, Inc. Following the spin-off on October 3, 2011, the Company became a standalone Spirits Company under the name Beam Inc. It is a premium spirits company that makes and sells branded distilled spirits products in major markets. The Company's three reportable segments are the geographic regions of North America, EMEA and APSA. Each segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of distilled spirits products. Its principal products include bourbon whiskey, Scotch whisky, Canadian whisky, tequila, cognac, rum, cordials, and ready-to-drink pre-mixed cocktails. The Company's portfolio consists of brands it identifies as Power Brands, Rising Stars, Local Jewels and Value Creators. The Power Brands are the core brand equities, with its reach in premium categories and large annual sales volume. Rising Stars are smaller premium brands in priority markets. Brands identified as Local Jewels act as Power Brands in local markets. Value Creators include a variety of brands competing across multiple categories. The principal markets for its spirits products are the United States, Australia, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Canada, and continues to invest in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Central Europe, Asia, and other geographies. The Company operates its business on the basis of geographical regions, consisting of North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia-Pacific/South America. Its peak season for business is the fourth calendar quarter due to holiday buying. Raw materials for the production, storage and aging of distilled products are corn and other grains for whiskies and other spirits, agave for tequila, molasses for rum, grapes for cognac and fortified wines, new or used oak barrels, and plastic and glass for bottles. These materials are generally readily available from a number of sources, except that new oak barrels are available from only a few sources. The Company uses different business models to market and distribute its products in different regions of the world. In the U.S., it sells products either to wholesale distributors for resale to retail outlets or, in those states that control alcohol sales, to state governments who then sell them to retail customers and consumers. It competes on the basis of product quality, brand image, innovation, price, and service in response to consumer preferences. The production, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of its products are subject to regulation by federal, state, local, and foreign authorities.
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