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Beam (FRA:BJM) Predictability Rank


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What is Beam Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Beam Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Beam Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Beam (FRA:BJM) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Beam Inc., is incorporated under the laws of Delaware in 1985. On May 30, 1997, the Company's name was changed from American Brands, Inc. to Fortune Brands, Inc. Following the spin-off on October 3, 2011, the Company became a standalone Spirits Company under the name Beam Inc. It is a premium spirits company that makes and sells branded distilled spirits products in major markets. The Company's three reportable segments are the geographic regions of North America, EMEA and APSA. Each segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of distilled spirits products. Its principal products include bourbon whiskey, Scotch whisky, Canadian whisky, tequila, cognac, rum, cordials, and ready-to-drink pre-mixed cocktails. The Company's portfolio consists of brands it identifies as Power Brands, Rising Stars, Local Jewels and Value Creators. The Power Brands are the core brand equities, with its reach in premium categories and large annual sales volume. Rising Stars are smaller premium brands in priority markets. Brands identified as Local Jewels act as Power Brands in local markets. Value Creators include a variety of brands competing across multiple categories. The principal markets for its spirits products are the United States, Australia, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Canada, and continues to invest in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Central Europe, Asia, and other geographies. The Company operates its business on the basis of geographical regions, consisting of North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia-Pacific/South America. Its peak season for business is the fourth calendar quarter due to holiday buying. Raw materials for the production, storage and aging of distilled products are corn and other grains for whiskies and other spirits, agave for tequila, molasses for rum, grapes for cognac and fortified wines, new or used oak barrels, and plastic and glass for bottles. These materials are generally readily available from a number of sources, except that new oak barrels are available from only a few sources. The Company uses different business models to market and distribute its products in different regions of the world. In the U.S., it sells products either to wholesale distributors for resale to retail outlets or, in those states that control alcohol sales, to state governments who then sell them to retail customers and consumers. It competes on the basis of product quality, brand image, innovation, price, and service in response to consumer preferences. The production, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of its products are subject to regulation by federal, state, local, and foreign authorities.

Beam (FRA:BJM) Headlines

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