What is Directv Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Broadcasting subindustry, Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Directv's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Directv Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Directv (FRA:DIG1) Business Description
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Directv was incorporated in Delaware in 2009. The Company is a provider of digital television entertainment in the United States and Latin America. It operates two direct-to-home, or DTH, business units: DIRECTV U.S. and DIRECTV Latin America, which are differentiated by their geographic location and are engaged in acquiring, promoting, selling and distributing digital entertainment programming via satellite to residential and commercial subscribers. In addition, the Company owns and operate two regional sports networks, or RSNs, hold a minority ownership interest in ROOT SPORTS Northwest and own a 42% interest in Game Show Network, LLC, or GSN, a television network dedicated to game-related programming and Internet interactive game playing. The Company face substantial competition in the MVPD industry and from emerging digital media distribution providers. Its competition includes companies that offer video, audio, interactive programming, telephony, data and other entertainment services, such as cable television, other DTH companies, telcos, wireless companies and companies that are developing new technologies, including online video distributors. The Company provides services in PanAmericana and Brazil from leased transponders on two geosynchronous satellites. Sky Mexico provides its services from leased transponders on a separate satellite. In addition, it leases a backup satellite that serves Sky Brasil and Sky Mexico. The Company is subject to government regulation in the United States, by the FCC and by other federal, state and local authorities. The Company is subject to similar regulatory agencies in Latin America. It is also subject to the rules and procedures of the International Telecommunication Union, or ITU, a agency of the United Nations, which coordinates telecommunications networks and services.
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