Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oaktree Specialty Lending (FRA:FFC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oaktree Specialty Lending Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
FRA:FFC vs CHY, CII, ETW: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Asset Management subindustry, Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Oaktree Specialty Lending Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Asset Management Industry
For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Oaktree Specialty Lending Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.35
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Oaktree Specialty Lending (FRA:FFC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Oaktree Specialty Lending's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Oaktree Specialty Lending has a GF Score™ of 56/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CHY and CII?
Oaktree Specialty Lending's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Asset Management industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Asset Management company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Asset Management industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Oaktree Specialty Lending's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Oaktree Specialty Lending stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oaktree Specialty Lending (FRA:FFC) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €12.12, compared to a current price of €10.11 — trading 16.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Oaktree Specialty Lending's overall GF Score™ is 56/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Oaktree Specialty Lending (FRA:FFC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Oaktree Specialty Lending (FRA:FFC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oaktree Specialty Lending stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €10.11 is trading 16.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of €12.12.
GuruFocus considers Oaktree Specialty Lending to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:FFC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
GF Value™: €12.12 vs. price of €10.11 (16.6% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:FFC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp is a specialty finance company. The company provides lending services and invests in small and mid-sized companies. The company's investment objective is to maximize its portfolio's total return by generating current income from debt investments, and to a lesser extent, capital appreciation from equity investments. The company provides customized, one-stop credit solutions to companies with limited access to public or syndicated capital markets. The company operates as a single reportable segment and derives revenues from investing in originated loans and other securities, including broadly syndicated loans, of U.S. private companies and manages the business on a consolidated basis.
56GF Score
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