What is Foster Wheeler AG Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Engineering & Construction subindustry, Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Construction Industry
For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Foster Wheeler AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Foster Wheeler AG Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Foster Wheeler AG (FRA:FWI) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Foster Wheeler AG was formed in 1927. The Company, with its subsidiaries, is a provider of construction and engineering services. The Company serves the oil and gas, oil refining, chemical and petrochemical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance industries. The Company operates through two business groups: its Global Engineering and Construction Group (Global E&C Group) and its Global Power Group. The Global E&C Group operates and designs, engineers, and constructs onshore and offshore upstream oil and gas processing facilities, natural gas liquefaction facilities and receiving terminals, gas-to-liquids facilities, oil refining, pharmaceutical and biotechnology facilities and related infrastructure, power generation and distribution facilities, and gasification facilities. The group provides engineering, project management and construction management services, and also designs facilities in new or developing market sectors, such as carbon capture and storage, solid fuel-fired integrated gasification combined-cycle power plants, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-chemicals and biofuels. The Global E&C Group additionally performs environmental remediation services. The Global Power Group designs, manufactures and installs steam generators and auxiliary equipment for electric power generating stations, district heating and power plants and industrial facilities. It offers new and retrofit nitrogen-oxide reduction systems, and provides site services related to these products, including construction and erection, maintenance engineering, plant upgrading, and life extensions. The Global Power Group conducts research and development in the areas of combustion, solid, fluid, and gas dynamics, heat transfer, materials, and solid mechanics. Further, this group owns and operates independent power production and waste-to-energy facilities, as well as power generation facilities for the process and petrochemical industries. Companies that compete with Global E&C Group include but are not limited to the following: Bechtel Corporation; Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.; Chiyoda Corporation; Fluor Corporation; Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.; JGC Corporation; KBR, Inc.; Saipem S.p.A.; Technip; Técnicas Reunidas, SA; and WorleyParsons Ltd. Companies that compete with Global Power Group include but are not limited to the following: Alstom Power S.A.; Andritz Group AG; The Babcock & Wilcox Company; Babcock Power Inc.; Dongfang Boiler Works (a subsidiary of Dong Fang Electric Corporation); Doosan-Babcock; Harbin Boiler Co., Ltd.; Hitachi, Ltd.; Metso Corporation; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.; and Shanghai Boiler Works Ltd. The operations are subject to certain federal, state and local environmental, occupational health and product safety laws.
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