Foster Wheeler AG (FRA:FWI) Predictability Rank

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What is Foster Wheeler AG Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Foster Wheeler AG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Foster Wheeler AG (FRA:FWI) Business Description

Industry

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Address

Website

http://www.fwc.com

Foster Wheeler AG was formed in 1927. The Company, with its subsidiaries, is a provider of construction and engineering services. The Company serves the oil and gas, oil refining, chemical and petrochemical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance industries. The Company operates through two business groups: its Global Engineering and Construction Group (Global E&C Group) and its Global Power Group. The Global E&C Group operates and designs, engineers, and constructs onshore and offshore upstream oil and gas processing facilities, natural gas liquefaction facilities and receiving terminals, gas-to-liquids facilities, oil refining, pharmaceutical and biotechnology facilities and related infrastructure, power generation and distribution facilities, and gasification facilities. The group provides engineering, project management and construction management services, and also designs facilities in new or developing market sectors, such as carbon capture and storage, solid fuel-fired integrated gasification combined-cycle power plants, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-chemicals and biofuels. The Global E&C Group additionally performs environmental remediation services. The Global Power Group designs, manufactures and installs steam generators and auxiliary equipment for electric power generating stations, district heating and power plants and industrial facilities. It offers new and retrofit nitrogen-oxide reduction systems, and provides site services related to these products, including construction and erection, maintenance engineering, plant upgrading, and life extensions. The Global Power Group conducts research and development in the areas of combustion, solid, fluid, and gas dynamics, heat transfer, materials, and solid mechanics. Further, this group owns and operates independent power production and waste-to-energy facilities, as well as power generation facilities for the process and petrochemical industries. Companies that compete with Global E&C Group include but are not limited to the following: Bechtel Corporation; Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.; Chiyoda Corporation; Fluor Corporation; Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.; JGC Corporation; KBR, Inc.; Saipem S.p.A.; Technip; TÃ©cnicas Reunidas, SA; and WorleyParsons Ltd. Companies that compete with Global Power Group include but are not limited to the following: Alstom Power S.A.; Andritz Group AG; The Babcock & Wilcox Company; Babcock Power Inc.; Dongfang Boiler Works (a subsidiary of Dong Fang Electric Corporation); Doosan-Babcock; Harbin Boiler Co., Ltd.; Hitachi, Ltd.; Metso Corporation; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.; and Shanghai Boiler Works Ltd. The operations are subject to certain federal, state and local environmental, occupational health and product safety laws.

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