What is tw telecom Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Telecom Services subindustry, tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Telecommunication Services Industry
For the Telecommunication Services industry and Communication Services sector, tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where tw telecom's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
tw telecom Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
tw telecom (FRA:TWM) Business Description
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Tw telecom inc was formed in 1998. The Company together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide managed network services, specializing in business Ethernet, data networking, Converged, IP-based virtual private network or "IP VPN", Internet access, voice, including voice over Internet Protocol or "VoIP", and network security services to enterprise organizations, including public sector entities, and carriers throughout the U.S., including global locations. It offers a portfolio of solutions to its customers with predictable and reliable service quality. It designs and deliver scalable and efficient solutions that enable its customers complex and evolving business applications. These solutions emphasize its data networking service offerings, which include an expanding portfolio of business Ethernet data services, managed network services and its converged service offerings comprised of data, Internet, voice, security, remote access and managed routers. It also provides a broad range of traditional services, including a dedicated network service portfolio with private line, special access and private transport services, voice services and secure Internet access. Its customers include enterprise organizations in a wide variety of industry segments, including, among others, the financial services, technology and science, health care, distribution, manufacturing and professional services industries, data centers, cloud application providers, public sector entities, system integrators and communications service providers, including ILECs, CLECs, wireless communications companies and cable companies. Its primary competition is from the ILECs, CLECs and cable companies. The ILECs, primarily AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications, Inc. and CenturyLink Inc., other CLECs and some cable companies offer services substantially similar to some of those it offers and target some of the same customers. The Company is subject to regulation by the Federal Communications Commission ("FCC"), state regulatory authorities and local government agencies.
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