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tw telecom (FRA:TWM) Predictability Rank


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What is tw telecom Predictability Rank?

4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

tw telecom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

tw telecom Predictability Rank Related Terms

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tw telecom Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » tw telecom inc (FRA:TWM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IST:TCELL PHS:GLO XTER:DRI TSE:2371 DHA:GP NZSE:SPK XKRX:032640 PHS:TEL WBO:TKA BKK:TRUE SAU:7020 XBRU:TNET HKSE:00552 HKSE:00008 TIGO TSX:CCA BKK:DTAC IST:TTKOM XKRX:030200 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.twtelecom.com
Tw telecom inc was formed in 1998. The Company together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide managed network services, specializing in business Ethernet, data networking, Converged, IP-based virtual private network or "IP VPN", Internet access, voice, including voice over Internet Protocol or "VoIP", and network security services to enterprise organizations, including public sector entities, and carriers throughout the U.S., including global locations. It offers a portfolio of solutions to its customers with predictable and reliable service quality. It designs and deliver scalable and efficient solutions that enable its customers complex and evolving business applications. These solutions emphasize its data networking service offerings, which include an expanding portfolio of business Ethernet data services, managed network services and its converged service offerings comprised of data, Internet, voice, security, remote access and managed routers. It also provides a broad range of traditional services, including a dedicated network service portfolio with private line, special access and private transport services, voice services and secure Internet access. Its customers include enterprise organizations in a wide variety of industry segments, including, among others, the financial services, technology and science, health care, distribution, manufacturing and professional services industries, data centers, cloud application providers, public sector entities, system integrators and communications service providers, including ILECs, CLECs, wireless communications companies and cable companies. Its primary competition is from the ILECs, CLECs and cable companies. The ILECs, primarily AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications, Inc. and CenturyLink Inc., other CLECs and some cable companies offer services substantially similar to some of those it offers and target some of the same customers. The Company is subject to regulation by the Federal Communications Commission ("FCC"), state regulatory authorities and local government agencies.