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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Goldmanchs BDC (NYSE:GSBD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Goldmanchs BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
GSBD vs FRBP, AOD, OCSL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Asset Management subindustry, Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Goldmanchs BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Asset Management Industry
For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Goldmanchs BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.60
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
Goldmanchs BDC (GSBD) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Sep. 11, 2026.
Is Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Goldmanchs BDC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, Goldmanchs BDC has a GF Score™ of 51/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to FRBP and AOD?
Goldmanchs BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Asset Management industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Asset Management company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Asset Management industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Goldmanchs BDC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Goldmanchs BDC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Goldmanchs BDC (GSBD) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $7.47, compared to a current price of $9.62 — trading 28.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Goldmanchs BDC's overall GF Score™ is 51/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Goldmanchs BDC (GSBD), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Sep. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Goldmanchs BDC (GSBD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Goldmanchs BDC stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $9.62 is trading 28.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $7.47.
GuruFocus considers Goldmanchs BDC to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for GSBD:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
GF Value™: $7.47 vs. price of $9.62 (28.8% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the GSBD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Goldman Sachs BDC Inc is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company that elected to be regulated as a business development company focused on lending to middle-market companies. The investment objective is to generate current income and, to a lesser extent, capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, including the first lien, unitranche and second lien debt, and unsecured debt. It invests in U.S. middle-market companies such as banks and the public debt markets. The company focuses on the negotiation and structuring of the loans or securities in which it invests and holding the investments in its portfolio to maturity. It generates majority revenue in the form of interest income and dividend income.
51GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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