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HCA (HCA Healthcare) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.09% (As of Dec. 12, 2024)


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What is HCA Healthcare Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.09%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Medical Care Facilities subindustry, HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where HCA Healthcare's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



HCA Healthcare Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.99

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.09%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


HCA Healthcare  (NYSE:HCA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


HCA Healthcare Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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HCA Healthcare Business Description

Address
One Park Plaza, Nashville, TN, USA, 37203
HCA Healthcare is a Nashville-based healthcare provider organization operating the largest collection of acute-care hospitals in the United States. As of June 2024, the firm owned and operated 188 hospitals, 123 freestanding outpatient surgery centers, and a broad network of physician offices, urgent-care clinics, and freestanding emergency rooms across 20 states and a small foothold in England.
Executives
Phillip G Billington officer: SVP-Internal Audit Services ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Kathleen M Whalen officer: SVP & Chief Ethics Officer ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Erol R Akdamar officer: Group President ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Michael S. Cuffe officer: President-Physician Services ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Christopher F. Wyatt officer: SVP & Controller ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Deborah M Reiner officer: SVP - Mktg. & Communications ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37048
Kathryn A. Torres officer: SVP- Employer&Payer Engagement ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Jeffrey E. Cohen officer: SVP-Government Relations ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Bill B Rutherford officer: CFO - Eastern Group ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Sammie S Mosier officer: SVP & Chief Nurse Executive ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
P. Martin Paslick officer: SVP and CIO ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Jennifer Berres officer: SVP & Chief Human Res. Officer ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Jon M Foster officer: Group President ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Timothy M Mcmanus officer: Group President ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Richard A Hammett officer: Group President ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203