Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.83%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Lai Sun Garment (International) (HKSE:00191) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Lai Sun Garment (International) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
HKSE:00191 vs MMM, HON: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Conglomerates subindustry, Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Lai Sun Garment (International) Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Conglomerates Industry
For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Lai Sun Garment (International) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-4.78
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.83% mean?
Lai Sun Garment (International) (HKSE:00191) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.83% as of Aug. 14, 2026.
Is Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Lai Sun Garment (International)'s current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.83%. Overall, Lai Sun Garment (International) has a GF Score™ of 32/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MMM and HON?
Lai Sun Garment (International)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.83% can be compared against companies in the Conglomerates industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Conglomerates company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Conglomerates industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Lai Sun Garment (International)'s current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.83%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Lai Sun Garment (International) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lai Sun Garment (International) (HKSE:00191) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$0.55, compared to a current price of HK$0.51 — trading 7.3% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.83%. Lai Sun Garment (International)'s overall GF Score™ is 32/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Lai Sun Garment (International) (HKSE:00191), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.83% as of Aug. 14, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Lai Sun Garment (International) (HKSE:00191) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lai Sun Garment (International) stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of HK$0.51 is trading 7.3% below its estimated GF Value™ of HK$0.55.
GuruFocus considers Lai Sun Garment (International) to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for HKSE:00191:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.83%
GF Value™: HK$0.55 vs. price of HK$0.51 (7.3% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:00191 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Lai Sun Garment (International) Ltd is a real estate company. The company's principal activities include property development and investment in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and overseas as well as investment in and operation of hotels and restaurants and investment holding. The company operates through nine segments namely, Property development and sales; Property investment; Hotel operation; Restaurant and F&B product sales operations; Media and entertainment; Film and TV program segment; Cinema operation; Theme park operation, and Others. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Property development and sales segment. Geographically, the company derives maximum revenue from Hong Kong and the rest from Chinese Mainland and Macau, the United Kindom, Vietnam, and other regions.
32GF Score
Get the complete analysis for HKSE:00191
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
HKSE:00191 has been successfully added to your 
