Winshine Science Co (HKSE:00209) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 1.31% (As of Jun. 10, 2024)

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What is Winshine Science Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.31%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Leisure subindustry, Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Winshine Science Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Winshine Science Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-4.32

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	1.31%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Winshine Science Co (HKSE:00209) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Winshine Science Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Winshine Science Co (HKSE:00209) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Winshine Science Co Ltd (HKSE:00209) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

287-299 Queen's Road, Room 1002, 10th Floor, 299 QRC, Central, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.winshine.com

Winshine Science Co Ltd is an investment holding company. The company's segment includes Securities investments, Toys, and Medical & health. It generates maximum revenue from the Toys segment. The toys segment derives its revenue from manufacturing for the sale of toys. The securities investments segment derives its profits or losses from dividends received from, and other gains or losses from, equity securities investments. The medical and health segment is under the development stage in which research and development expenses for medical and health technology development have been incurred. Its geographical segments are Hong Kong, China, the United States, Europe, and Korea, of which the majority of its revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

Wang Honggang	2101 Beneficial owner
U Credit (hk) Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Csc Holdings Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Hurray Talent Investment Development Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Zhonghai	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Lian	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Richsun Investment Development Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Hong Kong Huiheng Trading And Investment Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Jiang Qinghui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Csc Holdings Limited (formerly Known As "china Strategic Holdings Limited")	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
China Strategic Holdings Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Shen Jia	2101 Beneficial owner

Winshine Science Co (HKSE:00209) Headlines

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