China Shanshui Cement Group (HKSE:00691) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.89% (As of Dec. 12, 2024)

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is China Shanshui Cement Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.89%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Building Materials subindustry, China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Building Materials Industry

For the Building Materials industry and Basic Materials sector, China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

China Shanshui Cement Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-4.72

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.89%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

China Shanshui Cement Group (HKSE:00691) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

China Shanshui Cement Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Shanshui Cement Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

China Shanshui Cement Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd (HKSE:00691) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Shanshui Industrial Park, Gushan Town, Changqing District, Shandong, Jinan, CHN, 250307

Website

http://www.shanshuicement.com

China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd is a cement producer in China. The company manufactures and sells cement, clinker, and concrete in several provinces of China. Its geographic segments include Shandong Province which contributes to the majority of revenue and several other provinces of China that include Northeastern China, Shanxi Province, and Xinjiang Region. Its products are used for national key projects, railways, highways, airports, real estate, and other infrastructure construction and are exported to more than 60 countries and other international markets.

Executives

Bo Hai Yin Hang Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si Da Lian Fen Hang	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Shen Neng International Spc - Green Planet Sp	2101 Beneficial owner
Shen Neng Investment Management Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Fengluan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Liufa	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tianrui (international) Holding Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Tianrui Group Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Asia Cement Corporation	2101 Beneficial owner
Yu Yuan Investment Corporation Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
China Building Material Holdings Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
China National Building Material Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China National Building Material Group Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

China Shanshui Cement Group Headlines

No Headlines