Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings (HKSE:00918) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.20% (As of Mar. 15, 2025)

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What is Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Apparel Manufacturing subindustry, Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.20

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.20%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings (HKSE:00918) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00918) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Hok Cheung Street, Unit 13, 5th Floor, Tower 1, Harbour Centre, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.seiah.com

Majestic Dragon AeroTech Holdings Ltd, formerly State Energy Group International Assets Holdings Ltd along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the wholesale of consumer products including timepieces and accessories, garment and sportswear products, property investment, and provision of marketing services. Its segment includes Wholesale business Watch, Wholesale business Garment, Property investment, and Unmanned aerial vehicles business. Maximum revenue is generated from the Unmanned aerial vehicles business that sells unmanned aerial vehicles and related parts for fire-fighting, logistics transportation, communication, and agricultural use. Geographically, it derives key revenue from the People's Republic of China followed by the Middle East, Hong Kong, Africa, and Taiwan.

Executives

Zhang Jinbing	2101 Beneficial owner
Always Profit Development Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Golden Bold Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Yuelai	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chong Kin Group Holdings Ltd.	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
State Energy Hk Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Shang Hai Zhong She Gu Quan Tou Zi Ji Jin You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Guo Ming Gu Quan Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Quan Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guo Neng Shang Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Niu Fang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hu Zhang Cui	2202 Interest of your spouse

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